California poppy project funded by new NSF Organismal Response to Climate Change grant

With the accelerating pace of both climate change and habitat loss, conservation efforts will need to understand adaptive mechanisms that maximize the chances for species’ persistence. Species distribution models are a critical tool in the conservation “tool box.” This newly funded work, with collaborators Jay Sexton (UC Merced) and Cory Merow (UConn) aims to improve predictions of future species responses to climate change by using a mechanistic process incorporating traits, demography and evolutionary processes across scales, using Integral Projection Models (IPMs). This effort will integrate population genetic and phenotypic differentiation mechanisms of adaptation into predictions of range shifts, via IPMs parameterized by experimental data and informed by demographic trade-offs. A key aspect of this proposal lies in the development of demographic distribution models (DDMs), a new class of species distribution model that can incorporate evolutionary mechanisms into ecological and biogeographic predictions. Although developed for our focal species, these models will be broadly transferrable to other widespread, foundational species with conservation and/or economic significance. NSF award: IOS-2307791